多条证据表明预测模型可能受益于算法分类。在算法分类下，预测模型不会预测所有情况，而是将其中一些人迁移到人类专家。然而，在算法分类下模型的预测准确性与人类专家之间的相互作用并不充分理解。在这项工作中，我们首先正式表征在这种情况下，在这种情况下，预测模型可能受益于算法分类。在这样做时，我们还证明了用于完整自动化培训的模型可能是在分类下的次优。然后，给定任何模型和所需的分类级别，我们示出了最佳分类策略是确定性阈值规则，其中通过在每个实例级别上的模型和人为错误之间的差异来确定分类决策。建立这些结果，我们介绍了一种实用的基于梯度的算法，保证找到一系列分类策略和提高性能的预测模型。来自两个重要应用的合成和实际数据的各种监督学习任务的实验 - 内容调度和科学发现 - 说明了我们的理论结果，并表明我们的梯度基算法提供的模型和分类策略优于所提供的算法几个竞争的基线。

Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to capture this aspect by neither representing the sites visited by individuals explicitly nor characterizing disease transmission as a function of individual mobility patterns. In this work, we introduce a temporal point process modeling framework that specifically represents visits to the sites where individuals get in contact and infect each other. Under our model, the number of infections caused by an infectious individual naturally emerges to be overdispersed. Using an efficient sampling algorithm, we demonstrate how to estimate the transmission rate of infectious individuals at the sites they visit and in their households using Bayesian optimization and longitudinal case data. Simulations using fine-grained and publicly available demographic data and site locations from Bern, Switzerland showcase the flexibility of our framework. To facilitate research and analyses of other cities and regions, we release an open-source implementation of our framework.

Credit scoring models are the primary instrument used by financial institutions to manage credit risk. The scarcity of research on behavioral scoring is due to the difficult data access. Financial institutions have to maintain the privacy and security of borrowers' information refrain them from collaborating in research initiatives. In this work, we present a methodology that allows us to evaluate the performance of models trained with synthetic data when they are applied to real-world data. Our results show that synthetic data quality is increasingly poor when the number of attributes increases. However, creditworthiness assessment models trained with synthetic data show a reduction of 3\% of AUC and 6\% of KS when compared with models trained with real data. These results have a significant impact since they encourage credit risk investigation from synthetic data, making it possible to maintain borrowers' privacy and to address problems that until now have been hampered by the availability of information.

Novel topological spin textures, such as magnetic skyrmions, benefit from their inherent stability, acting as the ground state in several magnetic systems. In the current study of atomic monolayer magnetic materials, reasonable initial guesses are still needed to search for those magnetic patterns. This situation underlines the need to develop a more effective way to identify the ground states. To solve this problem, in this work, we propose a genetic-tunneling-driven variance-controlled optimization approach, which combines a local energy minimizer back-end and a metaheuristic global searching front-end. This algorithm is an effective optimization solution for searching for magnetic ground states at extremely low temperatures and is also robust for finding low-energy degenerated states at finite temperatures. We demonstrate here the success of this method in searching for magnetic ground states of 2D monolayer systems with both artificial and calculated interactions from density functional theory. It is also worth noting that the inherent concurrent property of this algorithm can significantly decrease the execution time. In conclusion, our proposed method builds a useful tool for low-dimensional magnetic system energy optimization.

This work presents a set of neural network (NN) models specifically designed for accurate and efficient fluid dynamics forecasting. In this work, we show how neural networks training can be improved by reducing data complexity through a modal decomposition technique called higher order dynamic mode decomposition (HODMD), which identifies the main structures inside flow dynamics and reconstructs the original flow using only these main structures. This reconstruction has the same number of samples and spatial dimension as the original flow, but with a less complex dynamics and preserving its main features. We also show the low computational cost required by the proposed NN models, both in their training and inference phases. The core idea of this work is to test the limits of applicability of deep learning models to data forecasting in complex fluid dynamics problems. Generalization capabilities of the models are demonstrated by using the same neural network architectures to forecast the future dynamics of four different multi-phase flows. Data sets used to train and test these deep learning models come from Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS) of these flows.

Telling stories is an integral part of human communication which can evoke emotions and influence the affective states of the audience. Automatically modelling emotional trajectories in stories has thus attracted considerable scholarly interest. However, as most existing works have been limited to unsupervised dictionary-based approaches, there is no labelled benchmark for this task. We address this gap by introducing continuous valence and arousal annotations for an existing dataset of children's stories annotated with discrete emotion categories. We collect additional annotations for this data and map the originally categorical labels to the valence and arousal space. Leveraging recent advances in Natural Language Processing, we propose a set of novel Transformer-based methods for predicting valence and arousal signals over the course of written stories. We explore several strategies for fine-tuning a pretrained ELECTRA model and study the benefits of considering a sentence's context when inferring its emotionality. Moreover, we experiment with additional LSTM and Transformer layers. The best configuration achieves a Concordance Correlation Coefficient (CCC) of .7338 for valence and .6302 for arousal on the test set, demonstrating the suitability of our proposed approach. Our code and additional annotations are made available at https://github.com/lc0197/emotion_modelling_stories.

Earthquakes, fire, and floods often cause structural collapses of buildings. The inspection of damaged buildings poses a high risk for emergency forces or is even impossible, though. We present three recent selected missions of the Robotics Task Force of the German Rescue Robotics Center, where both ground and aerial robots were used to explore destroyed buildings. We describe and reflect the missions as well as the lessons learned that have resulted from them. In order to make robots from research laboratories fit for real operations, realistic test environments were set up for outdoor and indoor use and tested in regular exercises by researchers and emergency forces. Based on this experience, the robots and their control software were significantly improved. Furthermore, top teams of researchers and first responders were formed, each with realistic assessments of the operational and practical suitability of robotic systems.

The study aims the development of a wearable device to combat the onslaught of covid-19. Likewise, to enhance the regular face shield available in the market. Furthermore, to raise awareness of the health and safety protocols initiated by the government and its affiliates in the enforcement of social distancing with the integration of computer vision algorithms. The wearable device was composed of various hardware and software components such as a transparent polycarbonate face shield, microprocessor, sensors, camera, thin-film transistor on-screen display, jumper wires, power bank, and python programming language. The algorithm incorporated in the study was object detection under computer vision machine learning. The front camera with OpenCV technology determines the distance of a person in front of the user. Utilizing TensorFlow, the target object identifies and detects the image or live feed to get its bounding boxes. The focal length lens requires the determination of the distance from the camera to the target object. To get the focal length, multiply the pixel width by the known distance and divide it by the known width (Rosebrock, 2020). The deployment of unit testing ensures that the parameters are valid in terms of design and specifications.

Machine-learning classifiers can be leveraged as a two-sample statistical test. Suppose each sample is assigned a different label and that a classifier can obtain a better-than-chance result discriminating them. In this case, we can infer that both samples originate from different populations. However, many types of models, such as neural networks, behave as a black-box for the user: they can reject that both samples originate from the same population, but they do not offer insight into how both samples differ. Self-Organizing Maps are a dimensionality reduction initially devised as a data visualization tool that displays emergent properties, being also useful for classification tasks. Since they can be used as classifiers, they can be used also as a two-sample statistical test. But since their original purpose is visualization, they can also offer insights.

We introduce hp-greedy, a refinement approach for building gravitational wave surrogates as an extension of the standard reduced basis framework. Our proposal is data-driven, with a domain decomposition of the parameter space, local reduced basis, and a binary tree as the resulting structure, which are obtained in an automated way. When compared to the standard global reduced basis approach, the numerical simulations of our proposal show three salient features: i) representations of lower dimension with no loss of accuracy, ii) a significantly higher accuracy for a fixed maximum dimensionality of the basis, in some cases by orders of magnitude, and iii) results that depend on the reduced basis seed choice used by the refinement algorithm. We first illustrate the key parts of our approach with a toy model and then present a more realistic use case of gravitational waves emitted by the collision of two spinning, non-precessing black holes. We discuss performance aspects of hp-greedy, such as overfitting with respect to the depth of the tree structure, and other hyperparameter dependences. As two direct applications of the proposed hp-greedy refinement, we envision: i) a further acceleration of statistical inference, which might be complementary to focused reduced-order quadratures, and ii) the search of gravitational waves through clustering and nearest neighbors.